Friday, October 14, 2005

Video IPod: 4GM Baby Steps

Leave the country for two days, and this is what happens. They go and start the revolution without me. The only thing more annoying is that Michael Jackson is apparently staying in my hotel in London. They keep asking for my room key whenever I go down to the bar.

The video IPod, of course, is a miserable idea. I'm one of those who believe people associate certain types of entertainment with certain viewing habits/places -- one of the reasons downloaded movies are grifted by far less than 1% of the population, and the reason XBoxes and PS2's bury PC games in sales. The flat-screen G5 is the real darling here, engineered to match our established viewing habits. Only 20 inches, though? Wonder what'll come out for Christmas, hmmmm?

Some have e-mailed me to tell me that my 4th Generation Media has arrived. This is not technically true (and hey, I should be getting rich from this, right? Where are my filthy monies?). In my formulation, 4gM is a media, not a distribution, philosophy. To recap our central metaphor:

An effective 4GW army projects its force past the battlefield in order to directly affect the political will of the opponent.

An effective 4GM entertainment source projects its force past the mainstream media distribution system in order to directly connect with its audience.

Today's news is a crucial first step in the tactics of 4GM. You'll note Apple has done a cunning little sidestep here, in that their player will not play ripped movies -- but decrypted rips converted to Quicktime will play. Yes, yes Hollywood, we have your back ... suckers. Apple did this because, unlike the studios, they have remembered they are in the business of making money, while the studios gits are in the business of maintaining the status quo. An entire generation of new media humans will now have as their first introduction to online-received media be through proprietary Apple software, not Divx.

The more I think about this, the more obvious it becomes Apple has played Disney like a chump, and had Disney whispering "thank you, sir, and may I have another?" Apple just "allowed" Disney to bootstrap them into the number one spot in new media, even a step ahead of Bill Gates obsession with developing a "set-top box" run by Windows. And with LCD HDTV -- no, wait, we'll pick that up in a second.

You can see Disney being dragged kicking and screaming into this by some of their smarter execs. A resolution of 320x240? Ugh. And they will only really be offering product that's already been established as successful in the traditional TV "battlespace" -- hence my comment that this is really about tactics, not strategy or operational level rethinking. We won't be into full-on 4GM until original content starts popping up on these services, and succeeding.

However, this is an important first step. They are monetizing the process -- excellent. The price point is exactly what my research has shown to be the right amount, less than or equal to $2.00 for a TV episode. As I've stated before, at that price you can run a very, very spiffy television show with a little over one million viewers per episode. That's at the top end of the download audience right now, but add that to the hardware/cultural innovations ... again, hold onto that for a bit.

The real questions is what the next step by Disney's competitors will be. Will they also cut deals with Apple? Will the competing media companies try to form their own proprietary download systems? Time Warner, should've had a BitTorrent front-end grafted onto AOL ages ago: we'll see if it's too late now or even if AOL winds up in somebody else's pocket. But what's Fox/News Corp going to do? Sony? Enjoy those shitty DRM wars.

There's one more crucial step to accomplish before we really break free into the new horizon: getting the entertainment from computer to TV. And yes, I know, you can stream stuff, and the new Video IPod will have a connecting cradle -- but I mean seamlessly. Less than two steps. As in my 70-year-old mother-in-law can use it seamlessly, with the same ease to which she's become a Tivo addict. Pardon me, a Rogers Digital Cable DVR addict.

(That reminding us Tivo will go down as the biggest missed opportunity in New Media history. They got there the first with the most. They achieved that singular cultural success -- they became the verb for the process. And they pissed that early lead away. If the Netflix deal is what I've heard it is -- you download the movies on your computer then transfer them to the Tivo -- it's already doomed. Although I root for them, I think that they've got less than a year to turn things around before becoming a footnote.)

This hardware hurdle one of the reasons that although this Apple news is nice, I'm really watching the new Google/Comcast buddy-buddy relationship with far more interest. I will state this plainly, at the risk of open mocking when I am proven wrong: Comcast and other cable companies are the companies who will eventually win, and define our media future. They control the pipe. Period. A Google/Comcast combo -- jesus. Sure, you have an Apple Airport or a Windows-based PC with a router ... but who controls the cable to your house so all that tech can work? The day Comcast and its ilk declare "All that 'streaming media' you get over the internet -- you get it on your TV, through our box (which 85% already are used to having), and you don't have to do anything but point and click with your remote in the living room" it is ALL. OVER. And if there's not even a box ... most bleeding edge HDTV's/LCD's have enough integrated processing power to run cable company software. "Yes," I hear some of you say, "and to hook up to your ethernet or WiFi" but that's not the bloody point.

This is what I was mentioning earlier about the Windows set-top box. Microsoft, as is its tradition, is trying to crack an egg with a hammer. "Your Windows-brand set-top box will play your filthy TV shows AND run all your favorite Microsoft programs and have the spiffiest front-end --" Bah. Nobody wants to do spreadsheets on their TV. Nobody really wants to surf on their TV, really either, although that habit may eventually evolve. I know a big part of advertising and succesful marketing is convincing people that they need something they don't need, but it won't work when there's already a need that's not being met, and a very simple solution to it sitting right there in the marketplace. All most people would need to feel like they're living in the goddam 22nd Century is a variant of the very dumb box they already have. Yes, the rumored AirPort video streaming gizmo should be nice, but if the cable companies get there first, with the tech they've already mastered ...

Whoever gets there first -- with the fewest pieces of new hardware -- will win.

68 comments:

Axiom said...

"reminding us that ..."

What? Reminding us what?!

Seriously, you have an interesting flow going and I was looking forward to the gripping conclusion!

Rogers said...

should be fixed. sorry, hit publish button

Owen Williams said...

I built my own setup based on mythtv that makes it possible to get video from internet to living room in three steps, but it required a lot of initial setup and custom hacking to smooth out the rough edges.

Step one is "download movie." Whether from bit torrent or a video blog, there are various ways of downloading videos that are not-quite easy enough for anyone to learn.

Step two is "drag it to the TV-computer." I just drag the video onto a special folder on my desktop, and that sends it over the network to the video folder on my media-playing computer.

That computer is hooked up to the tv and has a nice menu system and works with a remote. I go to the tv, select "Watch Videos," and click on the new video.

I could eliminate two of those steps if I could download videos directly from the media center computer, but that probably won't happen soon. RSS feeds are the most likely way people will get independent content in the 4GM world, but there's no way people will type a feed URL on a tv. There needs to be an equivalent of the apple podcast directory, but for independent TV. (It would also be nice if it wasn't controlled by a single company.)

Right now Torrentocracy(.com) is the closest thing we have to "click to download, click to watch," but the UI is horrible. It's frustrating because the pieces are in place, but someone needs to wrap them up in a pretty package and tie it in a bow. Tivo of 8 years ago might have had the guts, but they've lost their nerve. Apple could do it, but they might be too cozy with the industry at this point. Who does that leave us with, Microsoft? Barf.

MrAndrews said...

For me, the big question is where the gatekeepers are in all this. If you can get a bit over a million subscribers to pay $2 for your show, you can make your show, but who gets to say what kind of show gets on iTunes in the first place? For music, you need to be part of a label (however small). For Podcasts, you just need to ask. If I find 1 million people willing to pay $2 for a weekly show of me eating cheesecake, at what stage can I convince Apple to put that show online, and what hoops do I have to jump through? That's where 4GM really works... if the barrier to entry is at just the right level to filter noise, but not so high you NEED to be ABC to play.

Rogers said...

Precisely. This is why this first step is an interesting tactical move, but not truly 4GM. In theory, you need a content-neutral distributor -- one of the big questions, as pointed out in a previous comment, is just how far int bed is Apple with the content humans, or are they playing nice as part of a bigger game.

Axiom said...

Of course, based on your primary heuristic (the fewest pieces of new hardware), the TiVo continues to be in the lead while trailing the technical innovation curve. It's easy to make the mental connection amongst anyone older than 20-25 that this device is "like a VCR only without tapes."

All that's missing is a delivery mechanism that, as you point out, doesn't suck. All that's missing there, it seems, is a sensible partnership and a little bit of software. My TiVo is already directly connected to the coax and to the home network (not a fat pipe with the older architecture but still). If there were a reasonable client that ran on the computer (super full feature inventory) AND on the TiVo interface (streamlined TiVo remote interface) combined with a wee bit of server-side capability to push the movies down the network to me, I'd pay money to avoid having to go to the ridiculous Blockbuster Pit of Despair.

said...

It's a beginning. The price point is what I expected, though they're once again fleecing us in Britain.

Just now the TV shows and the music videos are the same price $1.99. We won't get the shows over here yet, but we get the music videos. They cost £1.89. That's the equivalent of $3.30. Nice price hike, huh? I expect the pricing for music videos and TV shows to be the same when they're released here. $3.30 per show isn't as nice a price point. That's $72.60 for a 22 episode season, as opposed to $44 in the US.

I got this price info from BBC news. Check out the awesome $83, and $123 price hikes on those iPods too.

Yes, I'm bitter. I'm allowed to be. But I do think it's a start.

Rogers said...

correct, axiom, and sadly Tivo seems to be utterly dropping the ball here. What will probalby happen is that someone will leapfrog ahead off of the "it's a VCR with no tape" idea Tivo popularized with a smoother push system. We'll see.

adi said...

mr rogers, you fail to take into account the electric utilities. if toshiba has its way, the chip that makes all appliances connect to the internets will render cable etc obsolete, with all content through the simple yet venerable, edison-hating 3-prong socket that is already everywhere :)

then comcast and co are not toast, just crumbs...

Rogers said...

true, but that's a new tech, while nominally more efficient, it doesn;t have the "mond-space" foothold (mindhold) the cable companies already have. As far as 4GM goes, I think we'll see the cable-pipe switch first, then that perhaps evolves into the power-wire revolution.

MrAndrews said...

I'm on the phone with Apple trying to find out what kind of content they'll let onto iTunes. I reckon that in these early days, anyone that shares the same real estate as Lost is going to get free promotion (to a certain extent), so it's the right time to strike. I was in the music download game when iTunes started, and I remember thinking: "the quality sucks, the prices are high... it'll never work...", and then whoops! it got popular. So I'm thinking all the hiccups in this new roll-out won't matter much to the general public.

So Mr R: what's your 4GM idea, and how do you propose going about making it?

Doctor Memory said...

Electric utilities as bandwidth/content providers: hahahahohohohoheeheeheee*thud*. Sorry, but: "No." Broadband-over-power has been three years away from taking over the world for damn near a decade now, and is very likely going to stay that way. There are HARD problems involved in getting IP down a power line -- hard as in "Please hire more MIT physics PhDs", and to the extent that the problems are tractable at all, they place powerlines in a permanent 3rd place behind coax and telco lines for speed and reliability. Plus, we're talking about POWER UTILITIES here. "Nimble" and "forward thinking" aren't even in the vocabulary in that industry, and they probably shouldn't be.

John, I'm not sure that the cable companies have as much of an intrinsic advantage as you think. Owning the pipes can be as much of a liability as an advantage: that's a hell of a lot of capital equipment sitting around soaking up money and emitting depreciatrons while Sony, Universal, Fox and Warner Bros are basically money-printing machines. If Comcast gets stroppy, they become buyout-bait, and if the regulators don't like it, Fox just stops selling programming to them. (It's not like Rupert doesn't own satellites...)

(Disclaimer and or contextifier: I used to work for MediaOne, which became part of AT&T Broadband and then became part of Comcast.)

Apple's move here is an intriguing first step, and I'm very curious to see what step 2 is going to be. The FrontRow interface is obviously designed to be viewed on your TV instead of your computer... so when will they leap the gap and why didn't they already? There are half a dozen obvious technical solutions available to them, so I assume the issue here is political/economic/legal, and that there are frenzied negotiations going on even now. Gonna be an interesting few years.

MrAndrews said...

So the completely unreliable unofficial word from Apple is that they'll deal with new content on a case-by-case basis. So it's possible they're enabler of 4GM, in a roundabout way.

Rogers said...

Yeah, that pipe is lay-around capital -- but the problem the studios face is that as corporate entities, they'll never unite to shut out a distribution system. The second Fox stops selling content -- or more practically, no longer allows cable to license its channels -- other companies will eat themselves alive to fill that gap.

I'm with you on that weird hybrid feel to FrontRow. Half-assed predictions? Apple will cut a deal with L&G or some other m ajor LCD/HDTV company to integrate the software into their panels. At the very least, you will see 36 inch version of that G5 come along around pretty damn soon.

Dave K said...

> Comcast and other cable companies are the companies who will eventually win

Don't forget the phone companies who are looking to push TV over DSL or Fibre connections using server, hardware, and software bundles like Microsoft's IPTV. Bell Canada's been trialing it here.

An interesting side effect there is that the technology apparently works by only streaming the channel being watched to the viewer's terminal/receiver so it becomes practical, though not absolutely a guaranteed feature, to track exactly which/how many households are watching a channel, for how long, etc.

Andy said...

Things could always be worse, John. Michael Jackson could be asking for your room key every time you go down to the bar.

hanuman chimpster said...

Nice post, nice comments.....
For me FrontRow is the really interesting development. It looks like a nice entry point for Apple. I'm interested, but not savvy enough and too busy to hack together a system. I need a remote that switches from mouse to channel changer and that can switch inputs into a flat TV with cable card tuning (computer vs cable pipe) and I'm done.

The real bottle neck after that is the pathetic download speeds... but Verizon is deploying Fios.....
What I don't understand in what Rogers wrote is this: cable owns the pipe, but they can't shut off access to other servers, so with fat enough pipes I'll have access to any IPTV content I want. If the cable firms get most of the high end content on their servers, fine; but if the content companies can stream it directly to me, why would they give the cable firms anything? I see the cable firms headed to being a dialtone utility without much additional high value product.

I want to be able to switch between email, WWW, tunes, and video (archived and live) all in 10 minutes... For Apple, providing the hardware to enable that is a huge win. An Apple branded LCD HDTV bundled with a Mac Mini, FrontRow, etc should be next!

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rob said...

What amazes me about this whole process is that even Disney signed on. The fact that any entertainment industry executive is willing to hitch his wagon to Jobs' just shows what simple stimulus-response organisms they really are. Spray a little whiff of eau de moolah into the air and they turn, zombie-like, to stagger in your direction.

Had they any higher brain functions worth noting, they might have noticed how familiar this all sounds:

JOBS: "Hey, there, Mr. Big Media. We here at Apple are so small and our market share is so tiny that it couldn't possibly cause any harm if you helped us kick off a tiny little new media experiment we're thinking about that will probably never go anywhere anyway. So how 'bout you give us rights to distribute electronic versions of some of your properties at a modest cost with relatively few restrictions? No big deal, and you might make a couple extra bucks on the side."

MEDIA EXEC: "Buuuuucks...."

-ONE YEAR LATER-
Apple's little media experiment has more or less created a new industry. The Media Exec's festering synapses are unable to process any connection between predictable, reasonable pricing and success of the endeavor. He just hungers for more bucks. If he'd had the gray matter to launch such an experiment himself, his hunger would have driven him to price everything just expensively enough that nobody would want it, after which he would simply declare the entire concept unworkable. Nevertheless, frustrated and hungry, the exec returns to Infinite Loop.

MEDIA EXEC: "MOOOORE BUUUUUCKS!"

JOBS: "Renegotiate what? See this 80% download market share? How 'bout no. MUAHAHAHA."

The fact he could get away with this once is surprising. The fact that he just might pull it off again is downright stunning.

See, us New Media idealists tend to take on the role of villagers with torches and pitchforks in this little analogy. Jobs is, instead, the mad scientist who believes he has the formula to control the zombies, to make them do his bidding. This creeps out the villagers somewhat, and they kvetch a bit about Dr. Jobs and his strange experiments, but as long as the zombies aren't in charge, they're mostly content.

The real problem is that we the villagers are ultimately relying on the benevolent goodwill of Dr. Jobs not to turn the zombies loose on us once he perfects his formula, and that's an hypothesis as yet untested.

Dave K said...

Actually, this was just pointed out to me as part of a story on a recent MCE update and may be closer to step one your 4G system - Akimbo: 150 providers, including folks like Cartoon Network, CNN, and A&E, of 75 different categories of VOD content delivered over the internet to either a wireless/wired local terminal you just plug into your TV like a cable box or to a Windows MCE machine. All for a base price of $9.99 a month with some content having additional fees.

adi said...

3 years away my athlete's foot

i agree that it will take a little while, but broadband didn't sprout overnight either

anyway, this is all speculation, i see no need to get riled up over it

Doctor Memory said...

Adi: nothing personal here, and I didn't mean to rub you the wrong way. I just happen to work in the industry and know the backstory that doesn't make it into the press releases. Test rollouts happen all the time, and don't mean that a product is anywhere near ready for a national (or even regional) launch.

My prediction: powerline IP will occupy roughly the same market space as direct satellite IP -- a niche product serving people who for one reason or another can't make DSL or Cable work.

ZenPupDog said...

I'm a new Apple Employee and the iTunes deals are the stealth deals that folks aren't getting.

Amazing to see.

Rogers said...

welcome to the boards Zenpupdog, but be warned, we won't be swayed by you massive corporate cred here at our iconoclastic -- ah hell, just tell us who we need to kill to get the original production deal for Apple TV and get it over with.

Amandarama said...

I didn't know about the Comcast/Google thing. Potentially frightening and just in time for Halloween.

I don't want a single company to control my horizontal or my vertical.

Tim Clague said...

I think the exciting thing here (as a film maker) is that I may at last have a level playing field. Next week I start a short film video blog. So my podcast will sit next to Desperate Housewives on iTunes. Is this a truly a level playing field? No, I don't have the same budget but my advantage is I can shoot quicker and be more reactive to the audience / readers / viewers. If they like something and want a sequel - come back in 2 days and watch it!!!

Tim Clague
PROJECTOR FILMS
My Blog

adi said...

Dr memory
let us hope you are wrong for the sake of future simplicity. and let us also hope that you are right for the sake of a short story that i am conjuring up. :)

the way i see it is this: the one advantage of BPL/PBL/powerline ip, based on the original post, namely this part:
Whoever gets there first -- with the fewest pieces of new hardware -- will win.

is that a major possible backbone for the infrastructure(namely the power grid) already exists, another advantage if/when the toshiba internal chip is incorporated into appliances is that it wouldnt need people to install those hideous satellite dishes or STB's... unless we moved to simcity-esque microwave power :-P

That Girl said...

My Luddite brain hurts.

Anonymous said...

>>>The video IPod, of course, is a miserable idea.

Ah, your mother wears combat boots!

You'll see!

RogerRmjet said...

Akimbo... All for a base price of $9.99 a month with some content having additional fees.

They've lost the game and haven't even thrown the first pitch yet. What we consumers want, and Jobs has proven, is pay-as-you-go, not subscriptions. Subscriptions make money-hungry executives foam at the mouth, then cry like babies when it all goes belly up. Old idea. Get with the program people.

I agree with Rogers that TiVo needs to get on the ball. What I want is to put downloaded media into a public folder that I can watch via my TiVo. I can already do that with photos and MP3 files. TiVo needs to get in bed with Apple (quickly!) so that they can play iTunes music and video, as well as AVI, MPG, and more.

Bravo to Apple for taking this first big step. Now I want WB and the other networks to do the same as Disney/ABC. Next time I miss one of my shows (since everything good comes on at the same damn time), I want to be able to download it the next day.

Anonymous said...

So, Rogers, have you had chance yet to actually hold a viPod in your mitts yet?

Come, be seduced...

Anonymous said...

Still wondering if you've handled a viPod yet and Felt The Future.

Also wondering when those dopes -- is it still WB? -- will wake up and put Global Frequency on ITMS!

BTW, I just read Mark Burnett's book (yeah, he wrote it, right!), "Jump In!" Too bad it stops with Martha. I think he would have had an interesting chapter about GF! Well, next book...

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