Monday, September 10, 2007

KARNAK TRIUMPHANT!!

From the New York Times:

General Petraeus, whose long-awaited testimony before Congress will begin Monday, has informed President Bush that troop cuts may begin in mid-December, with the withdrawal of one of the 20 American combat brigades in Iraq, about 4,000 troops. By August, the American force in Iraq would be down to 15 combat brigades, the force level before Mr. Bush’s troop reinforcement plan.

The precise timing of such reductions, which would leave about 130,000 troops in Iraq, could vary, depending on conditions in the country. But the general has also said that it is too soon to present recommendations on reducing American forces below that level because the situation in Iraq is in flux. He has suggested that he wait until March (bold mine) to outline proposals on that question.

Six months, kids.

No, no, do not fear my powers. I will use them only for good.



50 comments:

Anonymous said...

Wowsers, Karnak! How'd you do it?

Well, of course, anybody can make a prediction that easy. What's _really_ amazing is the huge number of pundits and talking heads who _failed_ to make that prediction!

I call this the Puzzle of Non-Prophesy. Not: how did an outsider get so smart, but how did so many insiders get so stupid?

When an outsider is ten times smarter than the insiders, it usually isn't that the insiders have IQ 100 and the outsider has IQ 1000; no, instead it's usually because the outsider has IQ 100 and the insiders have IQ 10.

DJ said...

Now you know why I never play poker with you. Sit next to you at the Blackjack table sure. With. never against.

Anonymous said...

Do you wear the turban? Don't do it at airports. Them's the terrorist uniforms.

I am in awe, sir.

Anonymous said...

Oh, it's just a simple application of Friedman Units.

Mike said...

Ah the beauty of the Friedman Unit....

Er, wait, that didn't come out right...

Unknown said...

Bah, the Friedman Units are chicanery. MY POWER IS REAL!!

No, honestly, it's Friedman units. Got me.

Anonymous said...

Why did I go to college? This blog teaches me everything I ever needed to know.

Anonymous said...

Of course the real prediction will be: How many Friedman Units (FUs) until we see a genuine policy change, better or worse? Because it's clear form Petreus, Bush, et. al. that they have no intention of doing anything other then fudging the math and moving the goal posts until Bush is out of office and, by the power of the electoral college, it all becomes someone else's turd sandwich.

I say at least 3FUs, if the next president is Obamma or Edwards, 6-8 if it's Clinton or a Republican.

Anonymous said...

Where is Wes Clark when we need him?

Friedman units could also apply to how often Monkey updates his blog.

Anonymous said...

Look to the lesson of Somalia: Get a Democrat into the Oval Office and we should be out of there about 3 years later. Four at the outside.

Left_Wing_Fox said...

Black humor, but I'm flashing back to "The Money Pit", where the contractor estimate is always "two weeks" and the place always look like it's being used to test missiles.

No happy ending for this picture though.

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"You are CORRECT, sir! Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha!"

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