Thursday, August 31, 2006

Walrus Magazine: Iran's Quiet Revolution

Walrus Magazine is one of my favorite magazines, for a variety of reasons. Even if you're not Canadian, I'd recommend it. Just having the view of international affairs from outside the high walls of American media, but without a lot of the sins of the BBC or The Economist, makes it worthwhile.

I'm not sure of its newstand availability, but it's worth the subscription for both print and online (although they should smarten up and open up their online archive after a certain date). My focus this month in on a pretty great article about the state of Iran by a journalist who recently visited.

Anyone who's somehow fallen for the hype -- completely forgotten the pro-US demonstrations in Iran after 9/11, how Iran aided us in prosecuting the war against the Taliban -- and now believes Iran is seething expansionist Islamofascist state chock-a-bloc with suicide bombers and Imams should read this.

If there is one new law of warfare we desperately need our Dear Leaders to understand, it is this:

Law of Modern Warfare #001: When you bomb people for their own good, they never, ever get your point in the way you hope.

Bomb Iran, and you unite the entire nation behind the nationalist strongmen who are just waiting for the moment we hand them the rallying cry. We already helped unseat the moderate President with the whole "Axis of Evil" idiocy. This would be the cherry on the Idiot Cake.

Let's even ignore, for a second, what'll happen to our supply lines in Iraq. And if you bomb Iran, and our troops get cut off in Iraq, I will indeed say "I told you so." Except I'll be in the Rose Garden with a fucking torch when I do so. Fair warning.

Rember the Soviet Union. Remember East Germany. Let the bosses rot in corruption, keep selling the kids jeans, cell phones and dreams of financial success until those trends collide. I know it doesn't stoke your need for a Grand Metaphor and Engorging Struggle for Liberty, but it's how we win. For chrissake, I'm only asking that you be as internationally engaging as REAGAN. Could you do that? Please?





(Oh, and Global Guerrillas is kind of mandatory right now. At least his recent summary on the state of war.)

54 comments:

  1. Anonymous7:16 PM

    The Walrus certainly has its moments, young as it is. They're finding their feet with increasing speed, and I look forward to seeing what they'll do in the years ahead.

    Take that "National Dreams" collection of essays for instance in the June 2006 issue...and yes, I'm going to give the latest issue a closer look, John. Count on it.

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  2. Anonymous8:43 PM

    Rogers, I'm with ya in the Rose Garden. It sounds like I may need to supply the pitchforks.

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  3. Anonymous1:32 AM

    Well, I'm mostly with you here. The government that said it would rescue our pilots in 2001 is decidedly not the government in power today, but Iran still has the means to set itself straight with time. There are a lot of good, smart people there who will be completely ignored if we become too aggressive.

    Let's stop being coy about what we're saying, though. What I don't hear is people willing to stand up and say that if force becomes the only way to stop Iran from getting nukes, let them get the nukes. I think too many people opposed to war with Iran talk around that as if it were an indefensible position. It's a frightening one, sure, especially if you're sitting in Israel, but its merits should be discussed.

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  4. Actually, Matt, some of us have. It's something of a spinoff of what John says, and I'm a lot more longwinded in the entirety, but the simple line goes like this:

    What, exactly, makes you think the Iranian leaders are willing to commit suicide - both personally and as a nation - to cripple Israel or do a little damage to the United States? Give Iran five each 1MT nukes, and that's the worst they can do.

    These guys aren't suicide bombers. At best they send others to do that, but they're rather fond of life themselves. Pop a nuke against the US or Israel and eat several in return. It's that simple. MAD is a frightening principle, but as long as the people controlling the weapons love life themselves, it works.

    What, it doesn't? Then why hasn't Kim Il Jung used his?

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  5. Anonymous8:08 AM

    John,

    I applaud the sentiment, but you have to remember that some of these folks were people who were calling Reagan an APPEASER because he met with Gorbachev and worked for Glastnost. They figured he was being played as a chump. The fact that they were wrong then hasn't changed a thing.

    Yes the best way for "regime change" in a country is a slow innundation of ideas into a country while simultaneously containing that country's military ambitions. Iran could easily be an ally in the region right now if we hadn't been so stupid over the last century - hell, the mullahs might have lost a little more power if Bush had kept Iran off of his damn "Axis of I don't know what the fuck I'm saying" list.

    But we're led by a bunch of morons who think that they're supposed to "speak stupidly and use your big stick at every opportunity", so no one should be terribly suprised when they pick the wrong solution every single time.

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  6. Anonymous10:16 AM

    Rember the Soviet Union. Remember East Germany. Let the bosses rot in corruption, keep selling the kids jeans, cell phones and dreams of financial success until those trends collide.

    The Ahmenijad government is failing to deliver economic growth, and discontent at rising unemployment and inflation is said to be one reason why repression is increasing:

    The Ahmadinejad government has made clear that it will not brook criticism. Just this week, its official spokesman, Gholamhossein Elham, wrote to Tehran's public prosecutor, Said Mortazavi, exhorting him to legally pursue journalists and news outlets responsible for printing "lies" about the government. He was referring to the chorus of media criticism over Mr Ahmadinejad's economic policy, which many experts believe is failing to deliver his pre-election promises, while producing a witch's brew of high inflation and rising unemployment.

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  7. Anonymous10:18 AM

    Abject apologies for not spelling "Ahmadinejad" correctly.

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  8. given the choice between the best ideas of bush, cheney, rumsfeld and the other neocons and a nuclear iran, i choose a nuclear iran. all you do is say "welcome to the nuclear club, now you have a seat at the grownup's table. these are the rules. if you use one, everybody else in the world incinerates your ass. welcome, and have a nice day."

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  9. Anonymous12:41 PM

    So I check it out in good faith...

    Not one walrus. Not even a picture.

    I, for one, feel misled.

    K-

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  10. We have to keep reminding people that Iran has a nuclear program because a couple of bozos from the Ford Administration named Cheney and Rumsfeld persuaded the Shah to start one. Then a bozo from the Reagan Administration named North sold them the latest in American weaponry (to finance Nicaraguan terrorists). Do enough stupid things and sooner or later they catch up with you.

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  11. Anonymous9:14 AM

    There are what, at least ten countries with nukes. How many of them did we go to war with to prevent them from getting nukes? Did we go to war with Pakistan? India? China? Explain to me how a nuclear Iran would be worse than the military dictator of Pakistan with nukes. Or Stalin, for that matter. Is the Bush administration really trying to say that Iran with a couple of nukes is worse than STALIN with a THOUSAND of them? Not as bad as--but WORSE than Stalin?

    I agree with the pichforks and torches thing. We may also need some of those Frankenstien rakes.

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  12. Anonymous3:36 PM

    Yeah John, what would you consider are the sins of teh BBC and the Economist? Your'e not one of those dudes that think the Beeb is a de facto offshoot of Hezbollah are you?

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  13. Anonymous11:00 AM

    I have always said that the minute an Iranian kid can't wait for the next Britney Spears CD, We.Fucking.Win.

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  14. Anonymous12:59 AM

    "without a lot of the sins of the BBC or The Economist" - ??? Guess I'll have to start sleeping with Foreign Affairs under my pillow. Mr. Rogers, you should run for office. Any Office.

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  15. Anonymous11:08 PM

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    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete
  17. Anonymous6:45 AM

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    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete