Thursday, January 07, 2010

Altmedia: Netflix WIll Win. And With Your Newspapers, Too.

"Altmedia" won't be a regular thing, it just turns out all my links and discussion today have a theme.

As you may have heard, Netflix cut a deal with Warner Brothers -- they'll delay rental release of WB DVD's for 28 days in exchange for a deeper, wider reach into the WB library for their Watch Instantly feature. Other writers have beaten me to the punch with analysis -- Bill sent over this excellent article:

Netflix's focus on the long term is smart strategy, and complements well the company's near-term emphasis on riding the convergence wave by embedding its Watch Instantly software in every conceivable living room device (e.g. PS3, Xbox, Roku, Bravia, Blu-ray players, etc.). It's also a strategy that benefits Hollywood. By creating a situation where studios preserve as much of their DVD sales as possible (allegedly 75% of a film's total DVD sales occur in the first 4 weeks following release), Netflix is helping Hollywood gracefully wind down and milk the DVD business.
John August points out a lovely side-benefit -- writers get better residuals off streaming than off DVD rentals. (I'm a little fuzzy on the math, but at first glance he seems right).

I have said "Netflix Will Win" so many times now that I should have a t-shirt made. Or at least be getting some bling from them. But I think it's worth looking at this successful model from a print perspective as the tablets now battle it out.

The e-readers are a dead end. I mean, read this description of the Plastic Logic QueProreader's virtues:
One surprise of the presser is the new truVue format for publications that Plastic Logic supports. The standard was developed in conjunction with Adobe, and it preserves some of the style and layout (though certainly not all) of a print publication, with publishers such as Wall Street Journal, Forbes, Huffington Post, Thompson Reuters and more on board.. To get documents onto the device you can print to a "QUE it" printer, as well as drag and drop documents to a "QUE it" droplet on the desktop for automagical document transfers. There's also a QUE application for the BlackBerry, which can bump any email or attachment from the BlackBerry to the QUE over Bluetooth. QUE has partnered with Good for "QUE Mail" and "QUE Calendar," with support for Exchange, Gmail, Windows Live and other email accounts. The device has Bluetooth, WiFi and 3G under the hood, with AT&T providing the wireless data.
You mean I can take any data and easily turn it into a proprietary layout that can only be read on your device? Tell me it isn't so!! And it has some of the functions of a tablet computer, but not all? AMAZING! So instead of reading your newspaper/magazine on its website on my tablet computer, where I can also follow hyperlinks and watch embedded video, I can read the same information on a crippled black and white tablet but, thank God, formatted the way you prefer to present it -- in a shuffling, zombie illusion of print?!!

All this wankerriffic bit of tech does is allow newspapers a last sop to their ego, that they control the information space. Don't get me wrong, I'm not a "kill the newspapers" guy. They still produce and present information, but the idea that deprived of their column layout I'll be set adrift, well, that's just sad.

To a great degree, this is why I defended the Kindle, despite Amazon's rapacious grift (%70/30, favoring Amazon). The column I promised but never had time to do last year was about how Amazon was basically going through the "we now fuck you because we can" phase all new technologies enjoy. They got there first, they had the market share, and so things rolled out in a rather unsurprising way. They will abuse their monopoly as deeply as possible for as long as possible. I was just too jaded to pretend to be offended. Remember when iTunes was all about the DRM? And now, not so much.

This is attributing a very deep game to Jeff Bezos, but there's a nonzero chance that the Kindle was always intended to be a transitory device with a single purpose -- habituate people into buying digital books the way they buy digital music. Skim as much as you can as long as you can off the "early adopters" (alt. definition see: "suckers" "John Rogers") and make downloading books a plausible premise.

The Kindle Reader on the iPhone is a very pleasant, efficient interface. This Christmas, Amazon sold more Kindle files than physical books for the first time. Unless I'm smarter than Jeff Bezos (the correct answer, btw, is a hearty laugh), then you'll see Kindle(tm) quickly fall in behind the Netflix(tm) strategy, rushing to become as ubiquitous on as many platforms as possible while Bezos personally dynamites whatever 19th century manufacturing base is churning out the Kindle chassis.

Back in the video world, you can see Apple trying to play catch up to with its offer of a streaming deal with CBS and Disney. CBS, as we've noted before, has a counterintuitively brilliant policy toward online broadcast, and I'll doubt they bite. But this, combined with the conceptual muddle created by the Comcast/Universal deal, all points to a transformative streaming distribution solution occurring years faster than anticipated. The current definition of "Network" is going to die very soon -- why the hell should Disney sequester streaming ABC shows away on an ABC website when it's more likely to be watched on a content aggregator like Hulu or an Apple streaming center, or Netflix? You know who cares about keeping Lost associated with ABC? People who work at ABC. You know who doesn't give a shit about ABC in the new streaming model? The people who own ABC. That does not bode well for the suited humans wandering those halls.

The question is whether services such as Apple and Netflix will help the corporations rebuild something of the monopsony they had over the airwaves, or if the wealth they've built by treating everyone the same (shittily, but the same) will tilt them towards encouraging an open distribution system.

(And once there's a unified distribution system for movies, television, music and books on our computers, are we really supposed to believe that journalism will stay isolated on black and white e-readers? Adorable.)

The big question, I suppose, is when this online distribution plateau occurs, with a.) Netflix owning the brainspace for movies and a heckuva lot of television, b.) Amazon owning the books brainspace, with SOME music and video, but also being a, for lack of a better term, first-instinct purchase point for most online Americans c.) Apple owning the music brainspace, and maybe poaching some television, d.) Comcast owning a whackload of television, not to mention controlling the actual pipe coming into your home ... whether they settle out into a rough, slowly evolving equilibrium, or if any of them go for the kill-strike.

(EDIT: My, it's getting feisty in here already. Good. Definitely want to see your Comments on this one, as I'm trying to hash things out for a longer article. Tell me I'm an idiot, but be specific!)

103 comments:

Freelancer said...

C'mon, Rogers. your marketing department has to have more skill than I do with 5 minutes on my PC and no Photoshop.
http://twitpic.com/x6gsk
One up me, I dare you, and if you haven't watched Redbelt, for all the promotion you have been giving Watch Instant, well, if you haven't seen Redbelt, you should be drawn and quartered.

Niels G. said...

This Christmas, Amazon sold more Kindle files than physical books for the first time.

So they say, but what exactly do they mean by sold?

Michael the G said...

Haha! Didn't I just call you "Senor Early Adopter" in an email yesterday?

Niels has a point there. Either way, if it wasn't last Christmas it will be THIS Christmas so the central argument still stands.

So, what happens if Comcast gets into a tug o' war with one of the other mediums? My bet is Netflix as the subscription model is very familiar to Comcast and they will want every bit of that cake.

Does this provide a disincentive to Comcast (fatpipes R' them) and to a much lesser extent AT&T Uverse and Direct TV to provide easy open access to indirectly monetized aggregator sites like Hulu?

Oh, and while I know KFM (and many of his readers) LOVES the kindle for lots of very good reasons, I get to read LOADS and LOADS of books on my Android-powered smartdoohicky. Tablets be damned, Functionality is mine!!

(Having said that, what is your take on the "Tablet" war? Er, I mean, "Slate craze". Uh...or how about "totallyfarkingawesomegamechangingdoodadthatwillendupbeingnotthatbigadeal-fest!!!!!!"

I mean, you're a writer for god's sake. How willing are you to give up a decent keyboard?

Stephen said...

The one argument against tablet PCs as reading devices that I can think of is that they give you terrible eye-strain.

Now, if someone could just come up with a netbook/tablet with a double-sided monitor - one side an e-ink display, the other a conventional monitor - they'd be onto a winner.

dirk said...

My guess is that Comcast's monopoly fatpipes will prevent it from taking full advantage of their content creation and distribution advantage. The FCC will see to that (and if not the FCC, the state AG's) the public just hates Comcast too much to allow them that much power. That's the problem with all the regulated utilities in this fight. Verizon, Comcast, TW cable, even Dish and DirectTV have massive amounts of people they have screwed over for years, decades in some cases. Those people will not allow those companies to get as much of a stranglehold on their digital delivery as they would need to really take over.

Netflix may come out the winner of this contest, but it is much more likely that someone is in a garage or basement somewhere working on an easy to use, content neutral distribution or aggrigation system (it's all just 1's and 0's after all) that will kill all the transitional products you see today.

I heard a rumor that the new Mac tablet has an iPhone dock built in to act as a cell modem and the tablet provides a larger processor, screen, and HD space. That device (and the devices that other manufacturers make to compete with it) will kill all the current readers and netbooks dead. Imagine the convenience of being able to keep your "laptop" in your bag but access all the files on your smartphone, and when you need more processing power or screen size just plug your phone into your tablet and go.

Stephen Gallagher said...

Kindle books outsold regular books over Christmas because everyone who got a Kindle as a gift immediately downloaded something.

And who orders a print book on Christmas Day?

Anonymous said...

a) why does everybody want a tablet? outside a very few specific use-cases where you have to carry the thing with one hand and work with the other (friend of mine is stage sound-engineer .. for that it's cool) it's totally stupid. The screen is worse and you don't have a keyboard. sucks.

b) well if Netflix "wins" in any recognizable way I hope they will, at some stage, realize that the world doesn't end at the US borders and that people abroad might also wanna watch some content. And that, frankly, claiming I have to go through a completely different distribution channel that doesn't even offer me what I want (as in non-dubbed content) simply because of where I happen to live is completely nuts in a world-spanning network. But hey. Fuck Europeans. They don't have any money, do they?

Anonymous said...

FWIW, I think the netflix model could do major harm to public libraries - unless public libraries co-opt the netflix model for their use.

As I've argued before, e-materials won't completely replace print. They'll make great inroads, but I only need mention Children's Books to demonstrate my point. (What, you're going to let your 3 year old have its own Kindle? riiiiight. Not at TODAY's prices.)

But the idea of, well, look, here's the model. For a flat fee, you have access to a pool of entertainment/education/information materials. You can pull a limited amount at a time for your use, but you can return them and get more just as often as you like. The only restriction is that you are paying the flat fee. That's Netflix. That's a public library - the flat fee is the taxes you pay. (Actually, and digressively, you've been paying less and less for your library every year. Just something to note.)

Add 'server read' to ebooks - you don't download, you read while connected, just as you do for much of Netflix 'rentals' - and it's an easy step.

By the way, there's this interesting synergy between libraries and bookstores which are nearby that may apply here as well. When the two are near each other, both see an uptick in use. People discover something in the library and go to the bookstore to get more. People see something in the bookstore which MIGHT be good, so they use the library to check it out before spending the money. There are other trades as well, but the point is made. A business could think of the library or cheap-rental mode as advertising and not be too far off base. I have no doubt it will exist in electronic access as well.

It's going to happen, whether by public libraries or companies like Netflix or both. The model already exists, it just needs to take the next step.

McDuff said...

I'm not seeing the E-Ink based reader dying a death just yet. I don't care how good the Apple tablet is, unless I can read it in sunlight without waiting for a convenient cloud and then squinting, it's not covering the same niche as E-ink.

Isaac said...

A friend of our family who's big into technology in general made a prediction, somewhere around 1989-1991, that the Internet would end up being "bigger than television" in the same way that television came to eclipse radio.

Every month, more and more evidence arrives to prove him right, if he hasn't been proven right already.

At this point, I'm wondering how long it will be before the Nielsen (sp?) rating system is actively mocked in our culture as a sham, and television programming and business models are altered beyond recognition.

Give it ten years, perhaps?

LizMSK said...

Many of these companies are ignoring the international market entirely(except Amazon). Virtually anything I search for on iTunes is not available in my area. I'm in South Africa by the way. They should have people working on securing the rights to the content for all locations.

Stephen said...

McDuff speaks the truth. If your tablet has a backlit screen, It Is Not Suitable For Reading A Novel. As I said, if someone can sort out a tablet which combines an e-ink screen and a conventional one, they'll grab the market.

The technology's already out there - just take one of those laptops with a rotating screen, and put an e-ink screen on one side and an OLED screen on the other. Simple!

Matt said...

I am just not seeing as much value in the e-ink screen, I guess. My question is: Where do people do most of their reading?

I haven't seen someone sitting on a bench in a park and reading in a while (even when the weather is permitting). Where I *do* see people reading all the time is while they are in transit somewhere - bus, train, plane, whatever. Light consistency doesn't seem to be an issue in any case.

All us peasants with our stacks of paper glare at them thinking how we could have our entire 'to-read' collection in that stupid device if we'd just pony up the money.

jlredford said...

re: displays good for reading and surfing

There's a nice new one from Pixel Qi:

http://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/hardware/winner-pixel-qis-everywhere-display

It's color with a backlight and BW without and a higher resolution. Was derived from the One Laptop Per Child project at MIT, and may be the only result of it. Pixel Qi is bad news for E-Ink, but they were in trouble anyway since they could only make the screen material, not the whole screen. Their Taiwanese screen builder just bought them.

Stephen said...

@Matt - that looks like the one-size-fits-all solution we've been waiting for! Sweet...

Murphy Jacobs said...

Putting aside my personal dislike of the Kindle (I don't like the idea of anyone reaching wirelessly into devices I can't secure), e-Readers are certainly a transitional tech. Most technologies are. Eventually something comes along to replace it, at various rates of speed not easily predicted. (How hellish it would have been if the naysayers of the telegraph had decided to wait until the cell phone came out). Yes, some are cul-de-sacs, but technological advancement is rarely a straight line. However, being transitional is not an automatic negative. Some transitions take much longer than others.

Most small electronics have a planned 2 year life span anyway.

I don't believe that print will die this decade, at least for books, if only because of the fannish soul who wants an autograph.I'm not alone among those who now buy books in particular formats for particular reasons. As much as I love my e-reader, e-books lack certain qualities print books have -- especially those of being loaned to a friend or donated to a charity.

As for the actual use of e-readers, I use mine in a variety of lighting conditions, including outdoors. Not every bus stop or cafe is inside. And there are many things about an e-reader which make it preferable to reading on a computer, including size and weight. It isn't ONLY about the screen.

tavella said...

An e-reader is of no interest to me as long as they stick to their inflated prices. For years, publishers have claimed that high book prices are due to the high price of paper, et al. Yet when they have zero physical production costs, Amazon wants to charge vastly more than a paperback.

The extra money isn't going to authors; as Rogers noted, it's going to Amazon. The idea of paying Amazon lots of extra money for a book I don't own -- one that Amazon can delete at their whim, and one I can't access should my expensive reader break -- boggles me. Apparently the idea enchants some people, thus the high Kindle sales, but not me.

USRaider said...

I'm going to sound like a Luddite, but I really don't like the new Kindle/e-Reader trend. I personally like to hold a book in my hands, smell the paper, turn the pages. It is part of the relaxation from reading that I enjoy.

Saying this, however, it is inevitable that there will be change. One of these days, I may have to put aside my prejudice and read my books through such a device. But I will hold out as long as possible.

jim kosmicki said...

I would imagine that the international restrictions are NOT by choice of Netflix or any other streaming media site. Remember that the content is ultimately controlled by the studios who came up with the regional coding on dvds to restrict sales between international regions. When one company owns the distribution rights for North America but a different company owns the distribution rights for Europe or Asia, who controls the streaming rights on the global internet is a bit of a quagmire. Of course, as all the media companies merge into fewer and fewer actual entities, those distinctions should fade away. how's that for lemonade from lemons?

Nick said...

Comcast or Verizon or AT&T or any other pipe-provider will never become the mindspace for where you get your content because they have a vested interest in maintaining and locking you into their primary delivery method(s), whatever those are. The actual content is a loss leader for them compared to the revenue they get for the pipe, and the guys on the marketing team will always have to cowtow to that simple fact. The problem is that's not what people want.

I'll tell you want I want: I want to pay $20 directly to the production company to buy a movie. After which I want to have them send the movie in a universal file format to my personal cloud webspace that I can maintain forever. I want to then watch that movie on my TV, my PC, my phone or my WiFi-enabled-blender-with-a-flatscreen-attached-that-lets-me-watch-movies-while-blending.

The company that is closest to making this dream a reality is Google.

Doctor Jay said...

What Tavella said goes for me. And Nick. Nick, that's it exactly. (I think I'm probably the unusual one, but it's nice to know that I'm not the only one.) This is why I continue to buy CD's and rip them.

That's also why I held onto my vinyl records for far too long. VHS cassettes, however, I got rid of with joy unbounded.

And strangely, the Netflix model fits. I'm not paying them to own it, I'm paying to watch it.

kkisser said...

I still buy vinyl albums because I like the sound, though I own a ton of MP3s as well, because they're portable and still sound fine. I still buy paper books because I like the tactile sensation of reading almost as much as I like the content but I don't like ebooks because the medium hasn't bridged that sensory value gap yet. When an ebook is almost as easy to read as a paper book, to the point where the convenience outweighs that last little bit of sensory experience that can't be reproduced, then I'll buy them, as well as paper books.

It could happen but hasn't yet. On the other hand, my wife and I got rid of cable TV because because Netflix+Roku is way better than broadcast TV. Last week we got around to hooking up our digital antenna and found that we really liked watching TV without commercials and not having to tweak the antenna angle to get a clear picture. It's worth waiting for DVDs/streaming delays to not have to deal with that noise.

Once ebooks get to that level, we can talk but they aren't even close and if the Kindle is the best they have to offer at the moment, it's going to be a long while.

(mini design rant: The kindle is ugly as sin. Looks like someone wrenched off the face of CRT monitor circa 1996 and glued buttons to it. If I'm going to pay premium prices for a bit of tech, I want it to look pretty. That's why I pay for apple products. I know they work only marginally better than a PC half the cost but an iPod is pretty and feels nice in the hand. An iMac is a gorgeous piece of design that I'd gladly pay an extra few hundred bucks for. I'm going to spend 8-10 hours a day on a computer and I'll pay extra so I don't have to look at some piece of shit Dell that looks like it was extruded through a sieve by a monkey wielding a hammer.)

Anonymous said...

iTunes has dropped the DRM on music, but not video. It is sensible as it mirrors what you buy on disc. Audio CDs ship sans drm. DVDs have DRM, so iTunes store videos have drm (but not podcasts, which are free.)

Tim W. said...

It wasn't Apple that wanted DRM, but the music labels who insisted on it. It was only at the urging of Apple that they finally relented and allowed DRM-free music to be sold electronically.

kimshum said...

The original post talks about distribution, but while it's important, it's not what I care about. It's a means to an end, not an end in itself. I care about the content. The ideal distribution system is practically invisible – so ubiquitous/automatic/simple that I don't even take note of it.

Thing is, I don't want to be beholden to a distributor. I really don't. They basically aggregate content and provide a means of accessing that content, usually not even that easily/intuitively. That's it. They're tools; they're middlemen. The discussion of which one is better is just logistics. Yes, it's important for those companies, but I only care about the companies insofar as they provide me with a good service. And that service is accessing content.

But to address your point of the four main distributors, once we're accustomed to thinking of all of these types of entertainment as instantly accessible digital media, I don't want to have to go to four different content aggregators simply to access different arrangements of 1s and 0s. I want the system that dirk's guy in the basement is building. I want one neutral interface to access all of it.

Actually, even that's transitory. I want what Nick's talking about. I want to subscribe directly to the John Rogers Network or the Joss Whedon Network or the Aaron Sorkin Network. I want to be able to do so for every entertainment medium – books, TV, movies, music, whatever. I want a neutral interface that lets me subscribe to all of those without meddling in content production or limiting what I can do with/how I can access that content (I suppose Google is the closest model to that). Or perhaps I just want to follow the John Rogers Network feed that alerts me when a new episode/season/series is available for purchase. Or, hell, perhaps I want to invest in the JRN directly – JRN has a new show it plans to make, so viewers pay $10 a month for a year before/during production and then we get to watch free when it's been produced (with non-investors able to get in on the game for a fee).

Pie-in-the-sky? Oh, hell, yeah.

Now obviously one problem (of many…so many) is that it takes money to produce all of that, sometimes a lot of it, so what happens to everyone who's not an Established Creator? Here the old school networks may have some role to play (even if I'd much prefer a kind of apprentice system where the big successful creators bankroll new talent…though that may make the circle-jerk of writers only hiring their friends worse – whatever, this is my future!media fantasy). Old school networks may pool the risk of developing new talent, but without the stranglehold over all content production that exists today.

I want the people whose content I value – the creators – to have the discretion to do what they do best: to create entertainment. I want to directly purchase from/bankroll/support those creators whom I trust. Is that a lot riskier for creators? Yep. Is it never gonna happen? Probably not. Do I still want it? So much.

Mike Cane said...

Oh crap.

Is The Amazon Kindle An Outright Fraud?

The eBook Bubble: Save Your Money!

I'm waiting for you to wake up to Google:

Google, The Vampire

Dave said...

Comcast owning a whackload of television, not to mention controlling the actual pipe coming into your home ... whether they settle out into a rough, slowly evolving equilibrium, or if any of them go for the kill-strike

Short of a law preventing them from doing so, the odds that the current families of Cable Providers are going to sit back and let Apple/Netflix stream all the TV you want to Watch straight to your set over their pipes in contest of the cash cow that is selling you channels are pretty slim.

There's also the slight issue of the reality that subscription fees currently pay for a good percentage of TV and, if you take those away by moving everyone off cable to a free-for-all store like medium of distribution, you're essentially attacking both the direct funding for and the concept of an actual TV channel in the process; a reality which isn't likely lost on the people currently sitting in chairs and paying the bills.

Digital distribution is great if you assume a Creator driven market but the existing market is essentially entirely Ownership/Network driven and one suspects most of those folks want to keep their jobs and will endeavour to take steps to ensure that.

Optimally, one hopes everyone will find a middle ground somewhere.

Unknown said...

I agree with most of your points, but I disagree with your statement that e-book readers are a dead end. The form factor matters a heck of a lot, and a tablet is much different from an e-book reader. To extend things to absurdity, it is like comparing one of the tiny ipod shuffles to a netbook style laptop computer. They both play music and the netbook obviously has many more features, so the netbook should clearly be the superior music player. Except that the extra weight, larger size and less streamlined interface gut the usability and portability of the netbook as an mp3 player.

The same goes towards the difference between an e-book reader and a tablet, though to a lesser extent. They both read books, and the tablet has more features listed in its specs, but the price is not the only difference between them. The e-ink screen offers both readability in strong sunlight and much lower power consumption, up to a week of heavy reading on my old Sony PRS-500. The small size also lets it fit in most of my pockets (though often a tight fit) while most tablets I've seen are larger and/or thicker to include the extra processing power they need (which also drains the battery). You can add features to the ebook reader and slim down the tablet until they converge, but I'm not sure you get much benefit from that. How often do most people use their cell phone camera? Or play games on their cell phone? It is done, but people who want real pictures get a seperate camera, or a DS/PSP for gaming. Reading books on a tablet is... well... the last post I wrote on this topic included the phrase "Congratulations! You've just re-invented the N-gage!"

That last post was also about this new wonder format, and I was rather hard on it. It has color and whiz-bang features (and horrible DRM lockdown), but it doesn't really bring anything new to the table. You could easily have had all those things many years back on PDAs and such, back when there were people trading books as a series of small format PDFs suitable for handheld devices. Very few people used them for that, due to various reasons including readability problems and power drain from leaving the display on. E-ink is currently the only game in town for e-book readers, and it will be several years before other display technologies can approach it. Color e-ink has been right around the corner for a while now, and might have been here already if there was really a huge need for it, but there isn't a compelling use for color in most small portable readers. Pizel Qi is promising, but it uses more power than the e-ink display, especially for reading when the display is mostly static and refreshed rarely. Maybe next generation.

The one thing ebook readers really need right now is a DRM-free marketplace, but this is not a limitation of the technology, it is a self-inflicted limitation of the publishing industry. I've been buying books from Baen's Webscription site for over 3 years now, and last time I counted I've spent more than $1000 there. All the books are DRM-free and most likely available from the nearest pirate website, but I can download them from Baen much faster and easier while supporting the artists at the same time. Alas, the books available in such an easy manner are only a small fraction of the marketplace, and the only other place I could legally buy books that work on my reader is the Sony store (which is covered in DRM).

However, the one thing people seem to miss is that the stores are locked down with DRM, the readers themselves are not. They can only read 1 particular brand of DRM at a time, but they can read almost any format of non-DRMed files. The first store to sell everything in an easy to find non-DRM format will gain a large marketshare, but the publishers are holding out. This puts people who own e-book readers in a position where pirating e-books is actually the only workable option to read some books.

Anonymous said...

Nathan, I'm going to agree with our host and disagree with you on this one. Unless you've lots of discretionary income, having a $300 (or more) box that's only good for reading isn't happening for most people -- especially as it gets replaced every two years.

"Great" vs "Good Enough" is a classic battle. If "Good Enough" also does this, that, and several thoses that "Great" cannot do even though it is a lot more expensive, "Great" loses everything but a tiny market share.

McDuff said...

I don't see e-ink readers becoming better, I see them becoming cheaper. That's the difference. At the moment a Kindle is a toy with lots of proprietory gubbins attached to it. In ten years time, perhaps less, an ebook reader will be about $25-50, run some kind of stripped down linuxish thing, and come in any number of generic flavours. You'll sync it with a phone or a computer or whatever and use it to read the paper, and if you lose it you'll just get another one, blister packed off the rack at the airport.

Anonymous said...

well, IF (big if) ereaders become
a) quite a bit cheaper
b) MUCH smaller
I might consider getting one for reading. For me, the biggest concern is, does it fit in a normal trouser-pocket? The form-factor I'd be looking for is the one of my old Palm Tungsten T, on which I've read hundreds of books. Sadly, it's now, it seems, terminally broken so I'll have to get something else soon. But it can't be bigger than the palm, otherwise it's useless to me. Which goes for every eInk reader I've seen so far. Too bad.

Unknown said...

kirkspencer, I think there will be a market for it. Admittedly, the current market is a bit small due to the high price of the devices, but the technology is still fairly new and the market for tablet PCs is still rather small as well. Nothing I've seen says that the e-ink screen has to remain as expensive as it currently is, but tablet PCs have even further to go. Right now, e-book readers are all around the $300 range, while most of the tablet PCs I've seen are over $1000. Eventually e-book readers will need to drop in price to become common, but the same thing goes for tablet PCs for most people. Very few people are willing to spend $1000 just to read books.

I see the main difference being the usage patterns of people. If you really do have a use for the features of a tablet PC on a regular basis, it probably is better for you to buy it and use it to read books. However, I think there is a large segment of the market that is uninterested in the other features a tablet PC offers but still interested in reading books. Based on the sales of e-book readers even at the current rather high price point, this market should be rather large once the price drops.

I think in 10 years we'll have a choice between a $100 e-book reader and a $300-400 tablet. And since I currently have no use for a computer other than at home and work, I know which one I will buy.

Sean Hansen said...

I'm surprised no one's mentioned the Nook yet. There are certainly some drawbacks(like the crippling DRM that governs its wifi) but in the final judgment it gives you a lot more bang for your buck in that you actually get to OWN the book you paid 10 bucks for instead of merely licensing it. If Barnes and Nobles goes out of business you still have your book.

Lets say your best friend owns one(and at this point in the Nook's life that's a quite a big leap) and he wants to borrow your copy of "The Cosmic Engineers" then you just blip a few bloops and voila! You transfer your copy onto his machine.

It still has some of the DRM that's necessary for the business model, plus annoying features like having to physically sit in a Barnes and Nobel to use wifi but if they work past that then it'll be a game changer. Even some of the shortfalls can be changed using a Linux computer. Ultimately though the next step in the Kindle/Nook/next big thing in digital books will be licensing out of print books straight through the author. Otherwise the entire thing is just you buying the temporary use license of 8 dollar books for 10 bucks through a 235 dollar hunk of metal and plastic.

(Incidentally if you need product placement money AND for the crew to use an e-book to ubiquitously hack into a government terminal then check out this: http://nookdevs.com/Main_Page)

McDuff said...

Did you mean to use the word "ubiquitously" there? I don't think it means what you think it means. Surreptitiously, perhaps?

Anonymous said...

Nathan - ah, I see your point. I still disagree, but for a change can keep it simple.

If readers can come down from the 300-400 price range, why can't tablets do the same?

Unknown said...

Because a book reader design is easy. Opening files and displaying text is just about the easiest thing a computer can do. And text files can be compressed very efficiently as well. So you can use bare bones components and still get decent performance out of them. Here's a rundown of the corners you can cut on an e-book reader at no cost:

1) The e-ink display doesn't use power unless you're changing the image. Since reading books typically means you display a page of text for a long time, you get a huge benefit in power consumption using e-ink here. A tablet has to be more general purpose, which means pictures and videos. Color, most likely a backlight, and it uses power constantly no matter what it displays.

2) The processing power needed to read books is miniscule. Even the oldest computers I can think of could read files and display text fairly well. Adding fonts, compression (text compresses very easily) and a decent interface only adds a small amount to that. So you can go for the bare bones processor without losing anything, which also helps on your power consumption. Tablet PCs need much beefier processors to handle things like graphics and video.

3) Books are also tiny, especially when compressed. A book reader can get away with half a gig of flash memory and hold 400+ books. And for many books, half the size of the file is from the book's cover image attached to it. The same amount of storage can only hold 30-60 minutes of video with decent compression. Tablets naturally need more storage and probably more RAM as well.

4) Everything above results in direct component cost savings and also power savings. The power savings mean you can power the device longer with a much cheaper battery. Batteries become a huge part of the cost once you get the rest of the cost of components down, and it tends to scale poorly as technology improves. Chips have become much cheaper, but battery prices fall much slower. Heck, some laptop batteries are selling for over $100 on their own (though I'm sure you can get them cheaper than that, and that any hypothetical tablet would have a smaller battery).

In a nutshell, e-book readers can be cheap because they only need to do one thing, and what they do need to do is on the very lowest end of computing performance. Tablet PCs are more general purpose devices, which means they need to handle multiple displays/interfaces and need to account for applications that place a lot more demand on the components.

Unknown said...

Sean, I disagree with most of your comments about the Nook. It is very similar to other ebook readers out there, and there isn't anything amazingly special about it. It might have a better/worse interface than other ebook readers, but the only technical differences are minor. Every ebook reader out there lets you "buy" books instead of license them (even the Kindle hasn't messed with books that aren't bought from Amazon), but as long as they have DRM on them, you don't really "own" any book.

If B&N went out of buisness tomorrow lets look at what would happen. At first, nothing much. You still have your books, you can still read them just fine. You can't buy more or access the store, but these things happen. Then 3 years down the road, your nook dies. It has given long and faithful service, nothing bad happened to it, it just wore out. Now how do you access these books that you "own"? You can't buy a new nook, nothing else uses the same DRM system, and it is illegal to break the DRM. Even if you legally own the book, it is now illegal for you to access it due to a nasty little issue with a law called the DMCA.

This recently happened to me, as my old and faithful Sony PRS-500 began to die. Its battery got worse and worse, and finally could barely last through a day of reading. If I had purchased all my books through the Sony store, I would have lost all of them by going to a different manufacturer. I had the choice of keeping my books and living with whatever Sony was making at the time, or going elsewhere and loosing them all.

Luckily, I'd thought ahead and only bought 3 DRMed books. I bought most of the rest from Baen's webscription store with no DRM. I could have bought any e-book reader out there as a replacement and loaded the files. As it turned out, I liked the features of Sony's PRS-600 best so I got to keep those 3 books anyways (I don't need wireless store access when I use other stores, and most of the other e-book readers dodn't seem to support .pdf reflow or would have made me re-download or convert the books I had from Baen in .rtf format.)

Eric Flint has a series of columns up on the Baen's Universe site talking about DRM. While I don't agree with all of his points, I think he's pretty close on most of them. View them for free from this website (scroll to the bottom and look for the DRM with a red circle around it for the start of the series):

http://baens-universe.com/authors/Eric_Flint

Mike Cane said...

>>>1) The e-ink display doesn't use power unless you're changing the image.

Oh give it up. Pixel Qi's 3qi screen just killed eInk for good.

CES, The Death Of eInk, And The Asus Factor

The lightly-tarted-up text files of ePub is the primary reason for the devaluation of electronic books.

That's coming to an end.

Anonymous said...

Nathan, I'm apparently not being clear.

Yes, you're right. The single purpose device that's perfect for a single application can and will be cheaper than the multipurpose device. That doesn't matter. As long as the multipurpose device is 'good enough' and the price isn't significantly greater, it's going to beat the single purpose device.

One item for example: cell phones, and in particular cell phone cameras. Everybody and his brother knows a dedicated camera is better, and a cellphone for calls only is cheaper as well. So do most people purchase and carry a phone and a camera, or the combined device?

Inconvenience is a cost as well.

Add to this that there are a few screens that are getting quite decent comparisons to e-ink but which work for net-books and tablets, and it pretty well nails the deal. Me, I think the single purpose devices will hang around, but they'll be the exception for most people.

Anonymous said...

Kirkspencer

You're right. That's why it's impossible to buy a phone without a camera any more. It's also why you can't buy a small compact digital camera any more.

Oh, no, wait, neither of those two things are true, are they?

I guess the product space is big enough to also include people who aren't gadget hounds after all. You might not want an e-ink reader, but I'll be willing to bet that enough people do, particularly at a sub-$50 price point, to keep them around for quite some time.

Unknown said...

Mike, based on your link you seem to have a lot of anger at e-Ink devices, but I have yet to find any real evidence that "e-Ink is dead!!1!". Did eInk call your mother fat or something?

You can say something is worthless and dead all you want, and you might even be right, but if you want a decent discussion please try to back your statements up with rational arguments and facts. Otherwise the argument gets reduced to "oh yah? well you're a poopiehead!"

The 3qi screen is a better option for a tablet, no question. On a tablet the possible power savings from e-Ink don't show up since it is refreshing its screen so often. It also seems like the price on an e-Ink display is falling slower than it should, but that is hard to judge. But when comparing an ebook reader, the e-Ink screen still tends to be less power usage than the 3qi screen. Last I heard, it was about half the 3qi screen. 3qi is much better than the other options, and it might end up workable and cheap enough to replace e-Ink, but right now that is far from clear. It doesn't look like it will happen this generation of displays, but the next generation or two might make things interesting.

All that said, the display is not the only reason to have a separate market for ebook readers and tablet PCs.


Kirk, the vision of what things will be like years down the road is necessarily murky. I don't insist that I'm right, I just feel that viable markets for separate devices is the most likely scenario based on personal experience and some quick internet research on the subject. But there is enough room for things to change such that they do merge that it is possible you're right, and if you weight your information differently then you can come to different conclusions. I respect that. As long as you don't insist that thou shalt not buy e-Ink readers (i.e. my comments to Mike), then we can agree to have different viewpoints on the future. (If you do end up insisting that your way is the only way without any rational arguments, well... then I have to start looking for synonyms for for pompus ass :P )

Anonymous said...

Nathan,

I offer, as start for your searches: bloated simpleton, boastful, bombastic blockhead, conceited twit, fustian fool, highfaluting numbskull, imperious imbecile, self-important baboon, narcissistic dunce. (grin)

Nah, I'm not completely right. But I don't think e-ink (or other sole-use device) will be all there is.

That, by the way, is my point, McDuff. That the fact the single use items are better at their single use, and are relatively inexpensive and in some cases LESS expensive than the combined, does not mean the combination devices won't happen. And based on sales numbers the odds are that the combinations will be MORE popular. I'm not saying there won't be single use items, I'm saying they won't wipe out the multi-use items -- and in my opinion, raw sales of multi-use will exceed raw sales of single-use.

Unknown said...

Then it sounds like the heart of our disagreement rests with how big the market for tablet PCs is. If you already have a tablet PC, I agree that there isn't a real need to get a dedicated e-book reader. But if you only want to read books, it won't be worth buying a full-on tablet at the price difference I expect. So the tablet market eats into the e-book reader market, but not the other way around.

My opinion is that the market for tablets will be small while the market for e-book readers is larger than you expect, but it sounds like you think the market for tablets will be rather large. I think the number of people carrying around laptops gives a good indication of what tablet PC usage will be, but I guess we'll have to wait a few years to find out who is right.

Maestro said...

I'm waiting for someone to make a working Global Link (from Earth:Final Conflict). i.e. a pocketable piece of hardware that separates to unscroll a (flexible OLED) screen. Add a kickstand (a la the HTC Imagio or Nokia N86, except vertical) and a built-in virtual laser projected keyboard, and I'm sold.

Anonymous said...

Nathan, yep.

Maestro, I've said for years now that of the four components necessary for getting to the singularity, input and output were the hard parts. We're well on the way to processor, memory, and connectedness and that has been obvious for several year. Yes, all three can get faster and smaller and cheaper (you do NOT have to only choose two) still, but they're already astounding compared to ten, much less 30, years ago. But input and output are still the sticking points.

John Reha said...

Didn't see this mentioned, but Borders will be bringing non-DRM eBooks to the market in ePub format, and they will also be selling the Alex (seemingly the most versatile eReader, even though it's kinda fugly).

Conversation's been fascinating so far, too. I don't have much to add.

Unknown said...

While it would be nice if borders started selling books in non-DRMed format, I'll only believe it when I see a non-DRMed book downloaded on my reader. Other online bookstores sell non-DRMed books as well... but only on part of their selection. Most publishers are just too scared to sell books without DRM. If the publisher won't agree to it, they can't sell it.

So, I predict either a limited overall selection, or a limited non-DRM section with the majority sold with DRM. I've love to believe that they talked the publishers into something different, but I don't believe a newcomer to the market has that kind of clout yet. I think at this point, Amazon is the only one who could force the market open, and they don't seem to have an interest in it.

Anonymous said...

"I think at this point, Amazon is the only one who could force the market open."

No. Just as an example:

Why can't Netflix rent ebooks, too?

There are a few companies which COULD break the current fix. They just need the incentive - to see from where they're going to get their return. In addition to publishers and distributors, we've also got certain retailers.

Think Walmart could do it? I do - if it wanted to do it. Yep, the margin on books is small, but it's small on a lot of other things as well.

Milehimama @ Mama Says said...

I totally agree. We canceled Comcast cable months ago. Who needs it when we have NetFlix and Hulu? And a bonus, we introduced our boys to the pleasures of the A-Team (was there a better show for 10 year old boys) and other golden oldies, because all of the seasons are available.

My only regret is that I have to wait to see the Fringe season premiere because Hulu starts season two at episode 2.

Film izle said...

Thanks admın

Palamedes said...

kirkspence's early comments regarding closely located libraries and bookstores highlights a point some folks just don't seem to get regarding all this. There's media, and there's artifacts. An lots of folks still want their artifacts, even after they've received untethered media.

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Anonymous said...

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Anonymous said...

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